Acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) is a medical emergency that affects approximately 25% of patients with ulcerative colitis at some point in time in their lives. Outcomes of ASUC are highly variable. Approximately 30% of patients do not respond to corticosteroids and up to 50% of patients do not respond to rescue therapy (infliximab or cyclosporin) and require emergency colectomy. Data are emerging on infliximab dosing strategies, use of cyclosporin as a bridge to slower acting biologic agents and Janus kinase inhibition as primary and sequential therapy. In this review, we outline contemporary approaches to clinical management of ASUC in the setting of failure to respond to traditional rescue therapies.
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Background/Aims Robust management algorithms are required to reduce the residual risk of colectomy in acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) refractory to standard infliximab salvage therapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance and benefits of alternative ASUC management strategies using simulated prediction models of varying accuracy.
Methods This was a simulation-based modeling study using a hypothetical cohort of 5,000 steroid-refractory ASUC patients receiving standard infliximab induction. Simulated predictive models were used to risk-stratify patients and escalate treatment in patients at high risk of failing standard infliximab induction. The main outcome of interest was colectomy by 3 months.
Results The 3-month colectomy rate in the base scenario where all 5,000 patients received standard infliximab induction was 23%. The best-performing management strategy assigned high-risk patients to sequential Janus kinase inhibitor inhibition and mediumrisk patients to accelerated infliximab induction. Using a 90% area under the curve (AUC) prediction model and optimistic treatment efficacy assumptions, this strategy reduced the 3-month colectomy rate to 8% (65% residual risk reduction). Using an 80% AUC prediction model with only modest treatment efficacy assumptions, the 3-month colectomy rate was reduced to 15% (35% residual risk reduction). Overall management strategy efficacy was highly dependent on predictive model accuracy and underlying treatment efficacy assumptions.
Conclusions This is the first study to simulate predictive model-based management strategies in steroid-refractory ASUC and evaluate their effect on short-term colectomy rates. Future studies on predictive model development should incorporate simulation studies to better understand their expected benefit.
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Medical management of acute severe ulcerative colitis in the hospitalized patient Loren G Rabinowitz, Ajay Gade, Joseph D. Feuerstein Expert Review of Gastroenterology & Hepatology.2025; 19(5): 467. CrossRef
Three Janus kinase inhibitors in ulcerative colitis: is upadacitinib taking the lead? Yoon Suk Jung Intestinal Research.2025; 23(4): 394. CrossRef